congratulations to sandoval county, NM, the most recent place to announce that it will begin issuing same-sex marriage licences.
the past week has been wondrous and important and historic, and i consider "backlash" concerns both warranted and realistic, but would like to note some counterarguments.
san francisco's move was the tipping point of a debate that has been moving steadily in the right direction for a long, long time. civil unions in vermont were a step forward, though not enough. the massachusetts supreme court recently went farther afield with its mandate of marriages by may 17. san francisco mayor gavin newsom took an unprecedentedly bold step last week, and was promptly supported by chicago mayor richard daley and, as noted above, the powers that be in sandoval county. i feel certain that more is coming, that this sort of progress can't be put back.
courts around the country, seeing these precedents, will rule in favor of counties and municipalities that make this choice. (already, in san francisco, judges expected to issue cease and desist orders immediately have delayed, circumspectly approving the move, and the city has sued the state for the right to marry its citizens.) i see no constitutional argument, related to federalism or practically anything else, that would allow the us supreme court to reverse. where the federal constitution is silent, state constitutions with broad guarantees of equal treatment will speak. they will supersede state laws that discriminate or overdetermine (as with laws "defining" marriage), and unless a conservative majority on SCOTUS decides to get nakedly political (see bush v. gore), that will be that. then there will be a move for a constitutional amendment to define marriage, and it will fail...
because, in addition to new legal understandings of gay marriage (and marriage in general), cutting the crap and actually marrying these folks has produced a beautiful and groundbreaking stream of images and testimonies that collectively will win the "hearts and minds" battle of this war. [disclaimer] i'm fully aware of all the arguments about the evil inherent in a "we just want to be like straight people," white-picket-fence approach to this problem: it leaves a whole lot of queer people out in the cold. marriage isn't a cure-all, and it shouldn't be so normative, and there's gotta be room for transgression, etc. [/disclaimer] the pictures we see from san francisco are going to help straight people in the heartland understand that they have, to a degree, been seeing queer people as freaks precisely because queer people have been excluded from institutions like marriage. it's going to do people like my parents (just as an example) a world of good to see people who look and live just like them, who are together for life and have raised a family and whatnot, walking down the courthouse steps with their long-overdue marriage certificates. like i said in a previous post, love is good, and i think that biting the bullet in san francisco will make that known.